Latest stock market news from Wall Street - CNNMoney.com

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Billionaire Li Ka-Shing Urges Caution on Stock-Market Purchases

By Mark Lee and Theresa Tang

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, chairman and founder of the city’s second-largest property developer, warned investors to “be careful” when buying stocks owing to concerns about economic growth.

His comments, made to reporters after the annual shareholder meeting of his flagship real estate company Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd., contrast with a March 26 statement that investors with cash should consider buying equities and real estate. The Hang Seng Index surged 22 percent since then.

“Recovery in the stock market usually comes before the economy, but it’s not every time,” said Li, who is known as ‘Superman’ locally because of his investment acumen. “If you ask me if the stock market can go higher, it’s possible. But be careful, the economy still has some problems this year.”

The Hang Seng has climbed 52 percent from a four-month low on March 9 as investors speculated government stimulus efforts worldwide, including a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) package in China, will ease the global economic slump.

Signs of a recovery have been mixed. While Centaline Property Agency Ltd.’s home-price index has jumped 13.3 percent this year, the government said on May 15 that the economy shrank 4.3 percent in the first quarter, more than some economists expected. A May 19 report showed that Hong Kong’s jobless rate rose to the highest in three years.

Li was ranked No. 16 on Forbes magazine’s list of the world’s richest people with a fortune of $16.2 billion, the publication said in March. This makes him Asia’s second-richest man, behind India’s Mukesh Ambani, who has $19.5 billion.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Asian Tycoon Sues Citi Over Losses

Vivian Wai-yin Kwok, 05.19.09, 05:58 AM EDT
Thomson Reuters

Singapore-based Oei Hong Leong sued his longtime private bankers.

Singapore Tycoon Oei Hong Leong, who was widely dubbed "The Man with the Midas Touch," sued Citigroup for negligence and misrepresentation after he lost $1billion on foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury bond transactions last year.

Oei's lawsuit filed with the High Court of Singapore said the private banking arm of Citigroup ( C - news - people ), with which he has had a 30-year relationship, repeatedly gave him an inaccurate picture of his trading exposure, which led him to take riskier positions than he would have taken otherwise. Oei argued that he recorded massive losses as he was forced to close his trading positions in October during extremely volatile -- and unfavorable -- market conditions, when he finally realized the full extent of his exposure.

After Oei fully paid off those losses, he went to the court to sue Citigroup's private banking arm in the High Court for negligence and misrepresentation, the Singapore "Straits Times" reported Tuesday, citing court documents. Oei declined to comment about the court case, the local newspaper added.

A spokesman from Citi told Reuters in an email, "We believe that the claim is without merit and we fully intend to defend our position vigorously." The spokesperson, however, declined to comment further on the matter.
Ranked 27th on Forbes's Singapore Rich List in 2008, Oei had a net worth of $210 million based on his stakes in publicly traded companies and in private company filings.

The high-profile Indonesian-born businessman has always mesmerized the financial community in both Singapore and Hong Kong because the stocks he bought would usually and suddenly rise to dizzying heights before he sold them.

He has a track record of selling and restructuring third-tier listed companies. In his most famous deal, when he sold a controlling stake in Hong Kong-listed Tricom Holdings to Richard Li, the son of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, Oei was estimated to have made a profit of about 150 million Singaporean dollars. The junior Li injected several internet ventures to the company and renamed it Pacific Century Cyberworks. During the tech stock bubble in 2000, the stock rose from about 30 Hong Kong cents (4 cents) to 28.5 Hong Kong dollars ($3.65) in a few weeks before it merged with Hong Kong Telecom in August that year to become PCCW.

Oei returned to Singapore after the deal with Li. Last year, he sold his stake in formerly troubled Natsteel for more than $100 million and delisted his International Capital Investment in May.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Stock research is more than just a headline

May 18th, 2009

Posted by: Eric Auchard

– Eric Auchard is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

Stock research analysts get no respect these days. An academic study has concluded that share recommendations have little impact.

A 51-page study entitled “On the information role of stock recommendations,” finds that buy and sell ratings are uninformative and often try to “piggyback” on actual news for their influence. This begs the dismal question: if professional analysts can’t get it right, what hope for the ordinary investor?

Sell-side research — driven by the need of the analyst’s employer to trade stocks — dominates daily market conversations. Recommendations are the signposts of these debates, without which many investors would be lost.

Analysts are not alone in selling their independence to the highest bidder, and their reputation has suffered after so many were exposed as marketers for investment bankers, favoured clients or company managements. But independence is not the same as efficacy of stock recommendations.

Equities analysts are not unique in showing herd behaviour Oya Altinkilic of the University of Pittsburgh and Robert S. Hansen of Tulane University are correct to protest that stock ratings too often rely on past returns, and are poor indicators of future performance.

However, stock ratings are only a distillation of the analysts’ work. Their reports help investors make sense of announcements and prepare them for upcoming news. As with journalism, there is plenty of slip-shod analysis, or useless ratings changes made after the fact. Yet investors depend on analysts for a lot more than binary buy/sell ratings.

The methodology may explain the findings. The data measured the impact of ratings changes only for the 20 minutes before and after analysts published new recommendations.

The Pittsburgh/Tulane duo might instead have interviewed directors of those thousands of companies which are not covered by any analyst. Their stocks often have zombie status, with low ratings and no trade, because investors fear they will never be able to sell if they buy.

Analysis is not a road to riches from blindly following recommendations, but it oils the wheels of share trading, and the last year has shown what happens when liquidity dries up.

Rather than produce trite conclusions from some questionable research, the researchers might investigate why so many analysts are leaving the business under the pressure of compliance and regulation. Their loss makes markets poorer, whatever their recommendations

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/tag/research-analysts/

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

10 Golden Rules Of CFD Trading

1. Know your market
Choose a market that you understand. This will help you to take clear views on the direction of price movements.

2. Have realistic trading targets in place
A trading plan should provide a general set of rules which you can refer to. The plan might specify things such as:
• Profit goals (per day, month, year)
• Maximum losses you are prepared to take
• Size of the trade at any one time
• Entry/exit point
Without a set of rules, emotions such as greed, fear and hope may take over and lead you to make irrational decisions. Of course, as you become more confident, these rules can be changed and adapted to any new strategy you may wish to adopt.

3. Don't overtrade
Trade within your financial means. Don't use up your entire margin up with a single opening trade and always have extra margin to cover your position should it go against you.

4. Cut your losses
In a losing situation it is easy to let losses accumulate in the hope that prices will turn around. By getting out of loss making positions early, you will avoid losses getting too large.

5. Use closing orders (stop losses) to manage your risk You can place closing orders (stop losses) on trades both online and over the telephone to help minimise your losses.

6. Expect losses
Even the best traders in the world get it wrong. Analyse your losing trades and learn from your mistakes. Don't get emotionally attached to your trades.

7. Be disciplined
Do not let emotion take over - stick to your rules. Consider the appropriate levels to take profit and losses.

8. Don't put all your eggs in one basket Trade a variety of markets to spread your risk.

9. Don't trade on rumours
Have your own opinion about every trade so that when you are ready to trade you will be confident that you have taken a value and considered view.

10. Keep informed and up-to-date
Make use of all the resources available to you to maximise your understanding of the markets. The City Index Internet Trading Platform is constantly updated to give you the latest news and information from well respected news providers.

34 ISSUE 8 INVEST APR/MAY 09

Friday, May 1, 2009

一生人投资是成是败,主要取决于性格

五月 1st, 2009 by 作者:曹仁超 《论势》的读书笔记 部分摘录

自问身”势”定投资大计

小富由俭这句话,应改为小富由懂得理财。储蓄这习惯,最迟于二十五岁便应该结束,因为储蓄培养出节制的习惯,大致已成形。节流不如开源,接下来应学习投资理财,并将之视作一生一世的事。否则,保证你退休之时,生活一塌糊涂。

学晓一种投资技巧,基本工夫需要一百小时,如果你每日愿意花两小时学习投资,通常三个月便懂;但掌握一种投资技巧,约需一千小时,即差不多要花上一年半左右;至于达到出神入化的境界,非一万小时不可,即大约十年。世上没有即学即晓这回事。

其实投资是很沉闷的事,需严守纪律,完全无刺激可言。请记住,年龄在投资市场绝对有影响。

赚取第一个100万元,对生活的影响可能好大,赚到第一个1000万元时可能仍有感觉,再赚多下去,又是否十分高兴的事?见仁见智。1000万元以上的财富值是数字游戏。

1997年后,港人必须学习三件事:生在香港者不一定需要在港工作赚钱;就算在港工作赚钱,投资亦可以环球化;退休后不一定要留在香港。

选股还看中长期趋势

投资3W:长期吃货致富的日子已经结束,取而代之是三个W时代的来临–何处投资(Where)、买卖何股(What)、何时买卖(When)。

必须学习阅读上市公司年报,从一个小股东的角度去了解上市公司的情况;甚至把自己当成该公司的老板,从这个角度去决定到底应买入、持有或沽出?2000年,我看淡科网股的理由是以老板的角度想,哪有人愿意投资一些上百年也未能回本的生意?

优质股份的5大特征:一是公司管理良好;二是有创意;三是业务的毛利率高于15%,边际利润亦不应太低;四是大股东持股比重较大;五是表现出类拔萃,财务状况良好。

注定命苦的行业:农业、零售、传媒、饮食;法例改变的行业:电讯业;

KISS理论:Keep it simple,stupid!简单就是美

成功的投资者,无须在市场上百战百胜,而是遵守一个投资计划,信奉一套理念和系统,严守纪律,并戒除贪念与恐惧。

图表走势决定买卖时机

没有基础分析作后盾的技术分析,只是花拳绣腿,不堪一击;同样只论股份优劣而不把握时机,可能呆坐十年,亦只见波幅而不见升幅。所以两者最好互补长短,再加上严守纪律,既可避免自己感情用事,亦可防止亏损扩大。

留意形势定买卖策略

作为精明的投资者,我们首要捕捉大趋势,即所谓的有智慧不如趁势;例如香港地产商之所以成为巨富,正因赶上1967-1997年香港楼市反复向上的大趋势。然而如此的大趋势,一生人难得见一次。

至于中期趋势,需要明白形势不利自己时要忍、形势有利自己时要狠、看事物要准;近年的例子有2002年至2007年的美元贬值潮、2001年9月开始的金价上升周期,以及近年中国对原材料的饥渴。

至于炒短线,必须先学晓评估风险与回报关系、对摆动指数有深入研究并掌握股市一上一落的韵律,是极专业的事,并非我老曹专长。投资最好三路进军,利用循环周期、趋势及摆动指数,制定长、中、短策略。

纸上谈兵易,行军遣将难。投资策略中最重要的“止损不止赢”、“买涨不买跌”两大要诀,如运用得宜,已可成为小富。

炒股其实风险最小,因为一旦挑错股票,投资者可在损失达15%时止损沽售,亏损有限;起码较结婚、买楼或自己做生意的风险低许多。

投资犹如生孩子,贵精不贵多,例如不应持有多于两只资源股,或是银行股和地产股。只有大财团才可开超市,散户只可经营精品店。

决定买入一只股份后,可分三个阶段入货,不应一次把所有资金投入,而每只股份的比重上限为资本总额的两成。当股价上升有利润,投资者亦可分三次沽货,先卖掉三分之一,让其余利润往前跑。反之一旦看错市,便应尽快止损离场。

纵观中国大时势

中国需要进口的东西,未来价格皆看好;中国可以出口的东西,未来价格皆看淡。

中国1978年实施改革开放政策,带来高速增长,最值得关注的是两个趋势:中产阶级兴起,开始大量消费、饮食、旅行、买楼及购买私家车;制造业的黄金时期已结束,今后将改由创新科技及金融业带动。

宏观环球资产走势

欲投资成功,应先学习开阔自己的眼界,要用无国界的地球人的角度观察世界:美元和日元的走势、金砖四国的崛起,以至其它发展蓬勃的新兴国家,都对我们的投资决定举足轻重。

性格决定投资运势

没有人永远选股正确,只要发现选股错误时,果断行使止损盘,在大趋势中胜出皆可。一生投资是成是败,主要取决于性格。除了不怕输以外,还要订立目标,戒除坏习惯,再配合7C理论,才可以用有限的时间去赚取无限财富。

离开学校后,我们若能每天保持看书一至两小时,足可改变自己一生。透过书本我们不但可以渐渐提升个人投资水平,更可改善个人素质。

我们如何利用一生有限的时间去赚取无限财富?以下的7C理论,或可参考:1. Clarity,即目标要明确(以一切合法方法赚钱);2. Competence,完美(发现自己不足,便努力寻求投资知识,不只要做到最好,而是追求完美);3. Constraint,约束(一生中除了投资外,其它东西都难引起我的兴趣);4. Creativity,想像力(人必须解放自己想像力,有所追求,才有所成就);5. Concentration,集中全力(巴菲特曾对1994年的大学生演说,他说如果一生中有十大理想,请放弃五个,因为任凭你一生如何努力,是无法完成全部理想的);6. Courage,勇气(自古成功在尝试,要敢想并且敢做);7. Closure,即限日完成,训练自己于指定日子内完成任务(人类天生有惰性,没有期限便不能达标,所以要制订目标,并限日完成)。

常常听人说:金钱不能买来快乐。我老曹认为,这句说话的作用只是安慰那些没有钱的人。贫贱夫妻百事哀,普通人所遇到的烦恼其实九成与钱银有关,开门七件事都可用金钱解决。

没有金钱,我们很难会感到幸福,因此人人必须拥有一定财富才可快乐。惟金钱达到一定水平后,更多的财富不能带来更大的幸福感,则是事实。

人生最成功的投资其实是投资于子女身上,当一个明白事理的父亲,做他们的导师兼好朋友,拥有幸福的家,做个笑爸爸。

曹仁超投资者日记(简体) http://www.caorenchao.com/